New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CAR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:40Sebastian Aho Goal (19) Batted, assists: Martin Necas (19), Jaccob Slavin (18)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT3:40Sebastian Aho Goal (19) Batted, assists: Martin Necas (19), Jaccob Slavin (18)NJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 51% → >99% +48CAR 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Fair odds
- CAR -131
- NJ +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +19 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +91 Elo | CAR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 4th of 3114–10 | Road vs home | 15–1010th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.