Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Samuel GirardGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Samuel GirardPoints2
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals3
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists4
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:06Seth Jarvis Goal (16) , assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Sebastian Aho (38)2–5
- P212:06Michael Bunting Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (17), Brent Burns (22)2–4
- P119:38Samuel Girard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (10)2–3
- P119:33Zach Parise Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (12), Samuel Girard (12)1–3
- P116:51Martin Necas Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (16), Jaccob Slavin (17)0–3
- P16:25Martin Necas Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (21), Teuvo Teravainen (15)0–2
- P11:52Martin Necas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (21), Jordan Staal (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:52Martin Necas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (21), Jordan Staal (10)COL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 69% +14CAR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:25Martin Necas Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (21), Teuvo Teravainen (15)COL 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 69% → 81% +12CAR 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P116:51Martin Necas Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (16), Jaccob Slavin (17)COL 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 83% → 92% +9CAR 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P119:38Samuel Girard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (10)COL 2 – 3 CAR · COL 16% → 29% +13COL 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P212:06Michael Bunting Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (17), Brent Burns (22)COL 2 – 4 CAR · CAR 73% → 88% +14CAR 73% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Fair odds
- CAR -122
- COL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +20 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +32 Elo | CAR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 15th of 3112–12 | Road vs home | 14–1011th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.