Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Erik CernakGoals1
- Anthony CirelliAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brayden Point Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P216:23James van Riemsdyk Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (25), David Pastrnak (44)2–2
- P22:04Charlie McAvoy Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (24), David Pastrnak (43)2–1
- P21:06Nikita Kucherov Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P13:21Erik Cernak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (30), Anthony Cirelli (18)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Erik Cernak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (30), Anthony Cirelli (18)TB 1 – 0 BOS · TB 45% → 59% +15TB 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P21:06Nikita Kucherov Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 0 BOS · TB 63% → 79% +15TB 63% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:04Charlie McAvoy Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (24), David Pastrnak (43)TB 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 36% +15BOS 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P216:23James van Riemsdyk Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (25), David Pastrnak (44)TB 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 31% → 54% +22BOS 31% → 54%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -125
- TB +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +55 Elo | BOS 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3111–16 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.