Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints3
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals2
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Boone JennerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Brandon Hagel Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (56), Anthony Cirelli (17)4–2
- P315:50Boone Jenner Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (27), Kirill Marchenko (11)3–2
- P312:22Boone Jenner Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (26), Zach Werenski (28)3–1
- P30:23Steven Stamkos Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (43), Nikita Kucherov (55)3–0
- P20:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), Nicholas Paul (15)2–0
- P115:40Nicholas Paul Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (28), Darren Raddysh (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:40Nicholas Paul Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (28), Darren Raddysh (16)TB 1 – 0 CBJ · TB 47% → 64% +17TB 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P20:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), Nicholas Paul (15)TB 2 – 0 CBJ · TB 65% → 80% +15TB 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P30:23Steven Stamkos Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (43), Nikita Kucherov (55)TB 3 – 0 CBJ · TB 89% → 97% +8TB 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P312:22Boone Jenner Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (26), Zach Werenski (28)TB 3 – 1 CBJ · CBJ <1% → 2% +2CBJ <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P315:50Boone Jenner Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (27), Kirill Marchenko (11)TB 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ <1% → 9% +8CBJ <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 46.8%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 26th of 3110–16 | Road vs home | 9–1629th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.