Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
BluesScoring summary
- P34:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (27), Johnny Gaudreau (25)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (27), Johnny Gaudreau (25)CBJ 1 – 0 STL · CBJ 47% → 73% +27CBJ 47% → 73%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- CBJ +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +90 Elo | STL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 47.2%23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 29th of 316–17 | Road vs home | 14–88th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.