Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Anthony RichardAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:56Nazem Kadri Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P32:33Charlie Coyle Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Anthony Richard (2), Parker Wotherspoon (5)2–2
- P119:23Martin Pospisil Goal (5) Poke, assists: Connor Zary (15), Nazem Kadri (30)1–2
- P118:41Charlie Coyle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P112:55Oliver Kylington Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (14), Yegor Sharangovich (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:55Oliver Kylington Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (14), Yegor Sharangovich (18)BOS 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 57% → 72% +15CGY 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P118:41Charlie Coyle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 1 CGY · BOS 27% → 43% +16BOS 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P119:23Martin Pospisil Goal (5) Poke, assists: Connor Zary (15), Nazem Kadri (30)BOS 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 57% → 73% +16CGY 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P32:33Charlie Coyle Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Anthony Richard (2), Parker Wotherspoon (5)BOS 2 – 2 CGY · BOS 21% → 46% +24BOS 21% → 46%+24 pts
- OT3:56Nazem Kadri Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 51% → >99% +49CGY 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 54%
- Fair odds
- CGY -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +6 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +30 Elo | CGY 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.224th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3116–10 | Road vs home | 12–1421st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.