Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists3
- Mason LohreiPoints3
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:10Charlie McAvoy Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (14), Pavel Zacha (23)6–5
- P313:23Zach Hyman Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (19), Connor McDavid (64)5–5
- P312:41David Pastrnak Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (6)5–4
- P37:24Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Cody Ceci (16)4–4
- P36:14Mattias Janmark Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (15)4–3
- P215:27Warren Foegele Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Zach Hyman (19), Brett Kulak (7)4–2
- P213:57Jake DeBrusk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (46), Parker Wotherspoon (4)4–1
- P24:40Trent Frederic Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Boqvist (5), Charlie McAvoy (31)3–1
- P20:25Brad Marchand Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (10), Mason Lohrei (5)2–1
- P111:40Warren Foegele Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (63)1–1
- P12:34Morgan Geekie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (4), Charlie Coyle (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:25Brad Marchand Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (10), Mason Lohrei (5)BOS 2 – 1 EDM · BOS 46% → 63% +18BOS 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P37:24Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Cody Ceci (16)BOS 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 23% → 52% +29EDM 23% → 52%+29 pts
- P312:41David Pastrnak Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (6)BOS 5 – 4 EDM · BOS 48% → 84% +36BOS 48% → 84%+36 pts
- P313:23Zach Hyman Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (19), Connor McDavid (64)BOS 5 – 5 EDM · EDM 15% → 52% +37EDM 15% → 52%+37 pts
- OT3:10Charlie McAvoy Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (14), Pavel Zacha (23)BOS 6 – 5 EDM · BOS 49% → 98% +49BOS 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +47 Elo | EDM 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3115–10 | Road vs home | 16–74th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.