Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:07Brandon Saad Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P311:14Corey Perry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (5), Connor McDavid (59)3–5
- P219:35Pavel Buchnevich Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (41), Jordan Kyrou (24)2–5
- P215:32Jordan Kyrou Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (7), Robert Thomas (40)2–4
- P28:37Torey Krug Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (6), Matthew Kessel (2)2–3
- P21:09Jake Neighbours Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Torey Krug (25)2–2
- P119:33Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (18), Connor McDavid (58)2–1
- P113:51Leon Draisaitl Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (57), Evan Bouchard (36)1–1
- P110:13Robert Thomas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (17), Pavel Buchnevich (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:13Robert Thomas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (17), Pavel Buchnevich (24)EDM 0 – 1 STL · STL 53% → 69% +15STL 53% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:51Leon Draisaitl Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (57), Evan Bouchard (36)EDM 1 – 1 STL · EDM 31% → 47% +16EDM 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P119:33Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (18), Connor McDavid (58)EDM 2 – 1 STL · EDM 47% → 64% +17EDM 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:09Jake Neighbours Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Torey Krug (25)EDM 2 – 2 STL · STL 35% → 53% +18STL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P28:37Torey Krug Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (6), Matthew Kessel (2)EDM 2 – 3 STL · STL 53% → 72% +19STL 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -116
- EDM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +8 Elo | EDM 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 14–910th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.