St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Torey KrugAssists5
- Torey KrugPoints5
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:33Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (39), Torey Krug (24)7–2
- P37:14Jake Neighbours Goal (18) Batted, assists: Robert Thomas (38), Torey Krug (23)6–2
- P33:06Joel Armia Goal (9) Deflected, assists: David Savard (8), Jayden Struble (3)5–2
- P30:31Robert Thomas Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (16), Jake Neighbours (5)5–1
- P217:49Nathan Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (16), Torey Krug (22)4–1
- P115:20Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (37), Torey Krug (21)3–1
- P110:23Nick Suzuki Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (14), Mike Matheson (32)2–1
- P15:05Colton Parayko Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (11)2–0
- P10:25Alexey Toropchenko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (13), Torey Krug (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:25Alexey Toropchenko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (13), Torey Krug (20)STL 1 – 0 MTL · STL 47% → 61% +14STL 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P15:05Colton Parayko Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (11)STL 2 – 0 MTL · STL 62% → 75% +13STL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:23Nick Suzuki Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (14), Mike Matheson (32)STL 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 23% → 37% +14MTL 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P115:20Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (37), Torey Krug (21)STL 3 – 1 MTL · STL 64% → 78% +14STL 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P217:49Nathan Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (16), Torey Krug (22)STL 4 – 1 MTL · STL 87% → 96% +9STL 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Fair odds
- MTL -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +19 Elo | STL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 44.9%30th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 15th of 3111–12 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.