St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Colton ParaykoAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
SabresScoring summary
- P318:03Jake Neighbours Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (15), Kasperi Kapanen (10)3–1
- P24:32Jordan Kyrou Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (11), Calle Rosen (1)2–1
- P20:51Kyle Okposo Goal (10) , assists: none1–1
- P112:53Jake Neighbours Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (23), Robert Thomas (36)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:53Jake Neighbours Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (23), Robert Thomas (36)STL 1 – 0 BUF · STL 45% → 62% +16STL 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P20:51Kyle Okposo Goal (10) , assists: noneSTL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 37% → 54% +18BUF 37% → 54%+18 pts
- P24:32Jordan Kyrou Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (11), Calle Rosen (1)STL 2 – 1 BUF · STL 46% → 65% +19STL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P318:03Jake Neighbours Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (15), Kasperi Kapanen (10)STL 3 – 1 BUF · STL 98% → >99% +2STL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Fair odds
- BUF -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +15 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +43 Elo | BUF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 19th of 3110–12 | Road vs home | 10–1425th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.