Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Sam SteelGoals1
- Craig SmithAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P29:04Sam Steel Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Radek Faksa (8), Craig Smith (4)2–1
- P25:53Tage Thompson Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (26), Jeff Skinner (17)1–1
- P13:58Matt Duchene Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (23), Mason Marchment (22)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:58Matt Duchene Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (23), Mason Marchment (22)DAL 1 – 0 BUF · DAL 46% → 61% +15DAL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P25:53Tage Thompson Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (26), Jeff Skinner (17)DAL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 34% → 53% +19BUF 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P29:04Sam Steel Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Radek Faksa (8), Craig Smith (4)DAL 2 – 1 BUF · DAL 47% → 67% +20DAL 47% → 67%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 52%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +15 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +14 Elo | BUF 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3114–9 | Road vs home | 10–1325th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.