Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:37Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (31), Mike Matheson (31)3–2
- P217:45Tyler Seguin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (30), Mason Marchment (25)3–1
- P24:15Tyler Seguin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Mason Marchment (24)2–1
- P23:51Thomas Harley Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26), Jason Robertson (35)1–1
- P20:38Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (24), Mike Matheson (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:38Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (24), Mike Matheson (30)DAL 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 70% +17MTL 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P23:51Thomas Harley Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26), Jason Robertson (35)DAL 1 – 1 MTL · DAL 30% → 47% +18DAL 30% → 47%+18 pts
- P24:15Tyler Seguin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Mason Marchment (24)DAL 2 – 1 MTL · DAL 47% → 66% +18DAL 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P217:45Tyler Seguin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (30), Mason Marchment (25)DAL 3 – 1 MTL · DAL 71% → 87% +17DAL 71% → 87%+17 pts
- P218:37Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (31), Mike Matheson (31)DAL 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 12% → 29% +17MTL 12% → 29%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +25 Elo | DAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3115–10 | Road vs home | 10–1527th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.