Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals2
- Ty DellandreaAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- John TavaresAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:35Wyatt Johnston Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (26), Mason Marchment (23)4–5
- P311:57William Nylander Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (25), Tyler Bertuzzi (15)3–5
- P311:37Mitchell Marner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (20), Matthew Knies (10)3–4
- P311:05Evgenii Dadonov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P212:37Auston Matthews Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (24)2–3
- P23:40John Tavares Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (40)2–2
- P117:23Evgenii Dadonov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3), Ryan Suter (10)2–1
- P114:52Jamie Benn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (25), Jason Robertson (34)1–1
- P16:34William Nylander Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:23Evgenii Dadonov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3), Ryan Suter (10)DAL 2 – 1 TOR · DAL 43% → 60% +17DAL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P23:40John Tavares Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (40)DAL 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 38% → 56% +18TOR 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P212:37Auston Matthews Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (24)DAL 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 55% → 75% +20TOR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P311:05Evgenii Dadonov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 3 – 3 TOR · DAL 15% → 47% +32DAL 15% → 47%+32 pts
- P311:37Mitchell Marner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (20), Matthew Knies (10)DAL 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 53% → 85% +32TOR 53% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -139
- DAL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −10 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3115–9 | Road vs home | 11–1218th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.