St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Alexey ToropchenkoGoals1
- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Alexey ToropchenkoPoints1
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals3
- TJ BrodieAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:21Bobby McMann Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Giordano (6), David Kampf (5)1–4
- P38:02Bobby McMann Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (12), Simon Benoit (2)1–3
- P25:36Alexey Toropchenko Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Matthew Kessel (1)1–2
- P116:25William Nylander Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:33Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:33Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (6)STL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +15TOR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:25William Nylander Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 83% +13TOR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P25:36Alexey Toropchenko Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Matthew Kessel (1)STL 1 – 2 TOR · STL 15% → 29% +14STL 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P38:02Bobby McMann Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (12), Simon Benoit (2)STL 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 81% → 95% +15TOR 81% → 95%+15 pts
- P318:21Bobby McMann Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Giordano (6), David Kampf (5)STL 1 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −12 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 14th of 3112–12 | Road vs home | 12–1217th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.