Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:54Ridly Greig Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (4)3–5
- P35:12Max Domi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (36), Nicholas Robertson (8)3–4
- P215:13Josh Norris Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (22)2–4
- P211:13Shane Pinto Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Parker Kelly (6), Artem Zub (15)2–3
- P29:43Matthew Knies Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mitchell Marner (35), Auston Matthews (21)2–2
- P22:04Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (3), Jakob Chychrun (21)1–2
- P117:53Claude Giroux Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Joseph (16)1–1
- P13:45Auston Matthews Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (34), Matthew Knies (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:53Claude Giroux Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Joseph (16)TOR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 36% → 53% +17OTT 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P22:04Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (3), Jakob Chychrun (21)TOR 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 53% → 70% +17OTT 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P29:43Matthew Knies Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mitchell Marner (35), Auston Matthews (21)TOR 2 – 2 OTT · TOR 28% → 47% +19TOR 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P211:13Shane Pinto Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Parker Kelly (6), Artem Zub (15)TOR 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 53% → 72% +20OTT 53% → 72%+20 pts
- P35:12Max Domi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (36), Nicholas Robertson (8)TOR 3 – 4 OTT · TOR 6% → 22% +15TOR 6% → 22%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Fair odds
- OTT -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −3 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%31st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 14th of 3112–11 | Road vs home | 11–1423rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.