Los Angeles Kings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Brandt ClarkeGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Brandt ClarkePoints2
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:33Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (21)5–4
- P318:25Anze Kopitar Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Drew Doughty (17), Viktor Arvidsson (1)4–4
- P37:12Trent Frederic Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (16), James van Riemsdyk (26)3–4
- P35:51Alex Laferriere Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), Quinton Byfield (23)3–3
- P216:38Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (3), Pierre-Luc Dubois (12)2–3
- P213:04Anthony Richard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (3), Jakub Lauko (5)1–3
- P114:45James van Riemsdyk Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Charlie McAvoy (28), David Pastrnak (45)1–2
- P111:02Matt Roy Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Lewis (5), Andreas Englund (7)1–1
- P18:03James van Riemsdyk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (16), Kevin Shattenkirk (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:45James van Riemsdyk Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Charlie McAvoy (28), David Pastrnak (45)LA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 71% +16BOS 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P35:51Alex Laferriere Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), Quinton Byfield (23)LA 3 – 3 BOS · LA 20% → 47% +27LA 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P37:12Trent Frederic Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (16), James van Riemsdyk (26)LA 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 53% → 81% +28BOS 53% → 81%+28 pts
- P318:25Anze Kopitar Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Drew Doughty (17), Viktor Arvidsson (1)LA 4 – 4 BOS · LA 1% → 49% +48LA 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:33Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (21)LA 5 – 4 BOS · LA 49% → >99% +51LA 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- LA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 49.5%20th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 7th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 16–1112th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.