Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings
Sabres- Jordan GreenwayGoals2
- Jacob BrysonAssists2
- Jordan GreenwayPoints3
Scoring summary
- P37:50Jordan Greenway Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (21), Casey Mittelstadt (31)0–7
- P34:30Alex Tuch Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none0–6
- P214:17Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (2), JJ Peterka (17)0–5
- P26:42Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (7), Peyton Krebs (7)0–4
- P119:25Kyle Okposo Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (20), Rasmus Dahlin (27)0–3
- P116:58Jordan Greenway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P14:25JJ Peterka Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jordan Greenway (9), Jacob Bryson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25JJ Peterka Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jordan Greenway (9), Jacob Bryson (1)LA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 54% → 69% +14BUF 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P116:58Jordan Greenway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 70% → 83% +13BUF 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P119:25Kyle Okposo Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (20), Rasmus Dahlin (27)LA 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 84% → 92% +9BUF 84% → 92%+9 pts
- P26:42Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (7), Peyton Krebs (7)LA 0 – 4 BUF · BUF 94% → 98% +4BUF 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P214:17Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (2), JJ Peterka (17)LA 0 – 5 BUF · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Fair odds
- BUF -121
- LA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +12 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +22 Elo | BUF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 6th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.