Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Devils- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Jesper BrattPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:23Quinton Byfield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (2), Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)2–1
- P212:58Tyler Toffoli Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (37), Jack Hughes (32)1–1
- P28:07Anze Kopitar Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (28)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:07Anze Kopitar Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (28)LA 1 – 0 NJ · LA 46% → 65% +20LA 46% → 65%+20 pts
- P212:58Tyler Toffoli Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (37), Jack Hughes (32)LA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 33% → 54% +21NJ 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P314:23Quinton Byfield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (2), Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)LA 2 – 1 NJ · LA 48% → 87% +39LA 48% → 87%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Fair odds
- NJ -125
- LA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +8 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +54 Elo | NJ 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 10th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.