New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- John MarinoAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Cody GlassAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Nico Hischier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (16)4–2
- P314:44Timo Meier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (11), Dawson Mercer (11)3–2
- P32:16Nico Hischier Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (36), Ondrej Palat (12)2–2
- P27:01Tommy Novak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (38), Cody Glass (4)1–2
- P21:30Jack Hughes Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (19), John Marino (13)1–1
- P14:04Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (3), Roman Josi (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (3), Roman Josi (37)NJ 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 59% → 73% +14NSH 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:30Jack Hughes Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (19), John Marino (13)NJ 1 – 1 NSH · NJ 26% → 43% +17NJ 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P27:01Tommy Novak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (38), Cody Glass (4)NJ 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 57% → 75% +18NSH 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P32:16Nico Hischier Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (36), Ondrej Palat (12)NJ 2 – 2 NSH · NJ 21% → 45% +24NJ 21% → 45%+24 pts
- P314:44Timo Meier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (11), Dawson Mercer (11)NJ 3 – 2 NSH · NJ 47% → 88% +40NJ 47% → 88%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 58%
- Fair odds
- NSH -144
- NJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +59 Elo | NSH 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 6th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.