Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:30Evan Bouchard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (39)4–3
- P219:02Matt Duchene Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (28), Thomas Harley (19)3–3
- P218:42Derek Ryan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (34)3–2
- P26:55Corey Perry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Leon Draisaitl (38)2–2
- P24:47Thomas Harley Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (33), Miro Heiskanen (27)1–2
- P22:03Evan Bouchard Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (16), Corey Perry (7)1–1
- P21:08Mason Marchment Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (21), Matt Duchene (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:47Thomas Harley Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (33), Miro Heiskanen (27)EDM 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 72% +18DAL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P26:55Corey Perry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Leon Draisaitl (38)EDM 2 – 2 DAL · EDM 28% → 46% +18EDM 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P218:42Derek Ryan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (34)EDM 3 – 2 DAL · EDM 47% → 70% +23EDM 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P219:02Matt Duchene Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (28), Thomas Harley (19)EDM 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 29% → 53% +24DAL 29% → 53%+24 pts
- OT0:30Evan Bouchard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (39)EDM 4 – 3 DAL · EDM 49% → 90% +42EDM 49% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 56%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +43 Elo | DAL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 10th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 16–109th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.