Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:35Matt Duchene Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (8)2–4
- P34:35Jason Robertson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (27), Jani Hakanpää (7)2–3
- P215:16Jesper Fast Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jordan Martinook (11), Jordan Staal (11)2–2
- P25:04Mason Marchment Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (13), Matt Duchene (31)1–2
- P20:13Jordan Staal Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (25), Jordan Martinook (10)1–1
- P19:53Roope Hintz Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (26), Jason Robertson (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:53Roope Hintz Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (26), Jason Robertson (36)CAR 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P20:13Jordan Staal Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (25), Jordan Martinook (10)CAR 1 – 1 DAL · CAR 29% → 46% +17CAR 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P25:04Mason Marchment Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (13), Matt Duchene (31)CAR 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 53% → 71% +18DAL 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P215:16Jesper Fast Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jordan Martinook (11), Jordan Staal (11)CAR 2 – 2 DAL · CAR 26% → 47% +21CAR 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P34:35Jason Robertson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (27), Jani Hakanpää (7)CAR 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → 78% +26DAL 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -120
- CAR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +18 Elo | DAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.4% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 15–1011th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.