Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints4
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Alexandre CarrierAssists1
- Tommy NovakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:50Wyatt Johnston Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (25)9–2
- P33:50Ty Dellandrea Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (37), Ryan Suter (12)8–2
- P219:47Matt Duchene Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (24), Ryan Suter (11)7–2
- P211:21Tommy Novak Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (29)6–2
- P210:51Tyler Seguin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (20), Mason Marchment (27)6–1
- P29:50Cole Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (6), Alexandre Carrier (11)5–1
- P24:40Miro Heiskanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Ty Dellandrea (5)5–0
- P115:53Wyatt Johnston Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (4), Thomas Harley (18)4–0
- P112:31Craig Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11)3–0
- P14:27Matt Duchene Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (26)2–0
- P10:35Sam Steel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:35Sam Steel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 0 NSH · DAL 46% → 61% +14DAL 46% → 61%+14 pts
- P14:27Matt Duchene Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (26)DAL 2 – 0 NSH · DAL 61% → 75% +13DAL 61% → 75%+13 pts
- P112:31Craig Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11)DAL 3 – 0 NSH · DAL 77% → 87% +10DAL 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P115:53Wyatt Johnston Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (4), Thomas Harley (18)DAL 4 – 0 NSH · DAL 88% → 95% +6DAL 88% → 95%+6 pts
- P24:40Miro Heiskanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Ty Dellandrea (5)DAL 5 – 0 NSH · DAL 97% → 99% +2DAL 97% → 99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 48%
- Fair odds
- NSH -116
- DAL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +13 Elo | DAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.121st of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3116–10 | Road vs home | 13–1316th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.