Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Ryan SuterGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Ryan SuterPoints1
Bruins- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Jesper BoqvistPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Charlie McAvoy Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Brad Marchand Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Backhand1–2
- P318:15David Pastrnak Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (30), Brad Marchand (26)3–3
- P310:44Esa Lindell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (38)3–2
- P21:32Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (4), Trent Frederic (17)2–2
- P21:04Ryan Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (27)2–1
- P111:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (20), Jamie Benn (22)1–1
- P14:01Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Richard (1), Charlie McAvoy (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (20), Jamie Benn (22)DAL 1 – 1 BOS · DAL 30% → 46% +15DAL 30% → 46%+15 pts
- P21:04Ryan Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (27)DAL 2 – 1 BOS · DAL 46% → 64% +18DAL 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P21:32Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (4), Trent Frederic (17)DAL 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 36% → 54% +18BOS 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P310:44Esa Lindell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (38)DAL 3 – 2 BOS · DAL 48% → 81% +33DAL 48% → 81%+33 pts
- P318:15David Pastrnak Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (30), Brad Marchand (26)DAL 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 2% → 51% +49BOS 2% → 51%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -121
- DAL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3117–10 | Road vs home | 16–1212th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.