Calgary Flames at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Rangers- Jimmy VeseyGoals1
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists1
- Jimmy VeseyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Jimmy Vesey Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P212:31Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (3), Jonny Brodzinski (10)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:31Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (3), Jonny Brodzinski (10)CGY 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 54% → 74% +20NYR 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P319:41Jimmy Vesey Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 2 NYR · NYR >99% → 100% +0NYR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −7 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +47 Elo | NYR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 16th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 16–74th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.