San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Filip ZadinaGoals2
- Filip ZadinaAssists2
- Filip ZadinaPoints4
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:40Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Chris Tanev (11), Jonathan Huberdeau (24)6–3
- P315:30Luke Kunin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–2
- P35:15Filip Zadina Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (7), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (2)5–2
- P34:38Filip Zadina Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nico Sturm (5), Justin Bailey (6)4–2
- P219:40Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (10), Noah Hanifin (21)3–2
- P212:30Luke Kunin Goal (7) Poke, assists: William Eklund (17), Kyle Burroughs (6)3–1
- P27:50Justin Bailey Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (10)2–1
- P24:52Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (9)1–1
- P14:19Nazem Kadri Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Martin Pospisil (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:52Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (9)SJ 1 – 1 CGY · SJ 25% → 42% +17SJ 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P27:50Justin Bailey Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (10)SJ 2 – 1 CGY · SJ 42% → 62% +20SJ 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P212:30Luke Kunin Goal (7) Poke, assists: William Eklund (17), Kyle Burroughs (6)SJ 3 – 1 CGY · SJ 64% → 82% +18SJ 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P219:40Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (10), Noah Hanifin (21)SJ 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 14% → 32% +18CGY 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P34:38Filip Zadina Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nico Sturm (5), Justin Bailey (6)SJ 4 – 2 CGY · SJ 72% → 90% +18SJ 72% → 90%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 65%
- Fair odds
- CGY -153
- SJ +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −12 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +108 Elo | CGY 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 31 |
| 31st of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.4% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 30th of 315–22 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.