San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors WPG.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists1
- Morgan BarronPoints1
Scoring summary
- P117:47Morgan Barron Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (15), Dylan Samberg (13)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:47Morgan Barron Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (15), Dylan Samberg (13)SJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 57% → 73% +16WPG 57% → 73%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 70%
- Fair odds
- WPG -139
- SJ +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +144 Elo | WPG 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 31st of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.6% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 30th of 315–21 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.