Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:08Bryan Rust Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (30), Ryan Graves (6)1–2
- P115:39Nino Niederreiter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (7), Logan Stanley (1)0–2
- P110:20Mark Scheifele Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:20Mark Scheifele Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20)PIT 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 59% → 73% +15WPG 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P115:39Nino Niederreiter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (7), Logan Stanley (1)PIT 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 74% → 86% +12WPG 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P214:08Bryan Rust Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (30), Ryan Graves (6)PIT 1 – 2 WPG · PIT 10% → 24% +14PIT 10% → 24%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Fair odds
- WPG -148
- PIT +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +80 Elo | WPG 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 21st of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 15–98th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.