Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Wild- Jonas BrodinGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Jonas BrodinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:34Kirill Kaprizov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (8), Jonas Brodin (13)2–3
- P31:01Sidney Crosby Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (29), Jake Guentzel (29)2–2
- P26:12Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (19)1–2
- P22:54Reilly Smith Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (25)1–1
- P112:57Matt Boldy Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Brock Faber (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:57Matt Boldy Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Brock Faber (27)PIT 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 69% +16MIN 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P22:54Reilly Smith Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (25)PIT 1 – 1 MIN · PIT 29% → 47% +17PIT 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P26:12Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (19)PIT 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 53% → 71% +18MIN 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P31:01Sidney Crosby Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (29), Jake Guentzel (29)PIT 2 – 2 MIN · PIT 24% → 48% +24PIT 24% → 48%+24 pts
- P39:34Kirill Kaprizov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (8), Jonas Brodin (13)PIT 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 52% → 82% +30MIN 52% → 82%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +9 Elo | MIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 19th of 3110–12 | Road vs home | 12–1217th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.