Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Sean MonahanGoals3
- Kyle ConnorAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Rasmus AnderssonAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:03Nazem Kadri Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (23)3–6
- P313:18Andrew Mangiapane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (29)3–5
- P216:06Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (22), Yegor Sharangovich (17)3–4
- P24:58Nazem Kadri Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (25)3–3
- P114:09Blake Coleman Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (20), Mikael Backlund (16)3–2
- P111:24Sean Monahan Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (12), Kyle Connor (15)3–1
- P16:49Sean Monahan Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (15), Josh Morrissey (29)2–1
- P16:07Sean Monahan Goal (15) Poke, assists: Kyle Connor (14), Gabriel Vilardi (11)1–1
- P14:19Oliver Kylington Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Oliver Kylington Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 68% +14CGY 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P16:07Sean Monahan Goal (15) Poke, assists: Kyle Connor (14), Gabriel Vilardi (11)WPG 1 – 1 CGY · WPG 32% → 47% +15WPG 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P16:49Sean Monahan Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (15), Josh Morrissey (29)WPG 2 – 1 CGY · WPG 47% → 62% +15WPG 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P24:58Nazem Kadri Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (25)WPG 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 34% → 53% +19CGY 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P216:06Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (22), Yegor Sharangovich (17)WPG 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 52% → 74% +21CGY 52% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 48%
- Fair odds
- CGY -116
- WPG +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +12 Elo | WPG 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.224th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 8th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 11–1423rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.