Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints4
Canucks- Tyler MyersGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Tyler MyersPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:42Mark Scheifele Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (13), Nate Schmidt (8)4–2
- P37:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Mark Scheifele (31)3–2
- P214:19Tyler Myers Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P29:25Sean Monahan Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (10), Mark Scheifele (30)2–1
- P25:16Gabriel Vilardi Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (29), Neal Pionk (16)1–1
- P20:19Noah Juulsen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (17), Ilya Mikheyev (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:19Noah Juulsen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (17), Ilya Mikheyev (15)WPG 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 72% +17VAN 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P25:16Gabriel Vilardi Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (29), Neal Pionk (16)WPG 1 – 1 VAN · WPG 28% → 46% +18WPG 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P29:25Sean Monahan Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (10), Mark Scheifele (30)WPG 2 – 1 VAN · WPG 46% → 66% +20WPG 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P214:19Tyler Myers Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 32% → 54% +22VAN 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P37:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Mark Scheifele (31)WPG 3 – 2 VAN · WPG 47% → 77% +30WPG 47% → 77%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Fair odds
- VAN -126
- WPG +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +64 Elo | VAN 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +1.11st of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 18–62nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.