Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints2
FlamesScoring summary
- P315:40Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (23)5–0
- P26:41David Perron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (15), Joe Veleno (13)4–0
- P25:12Dylan Larkin Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (13), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)3–0
- P115:59J.T. Compher Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (29), Alex DeBrincat (27)2–0
- P114:56Patrick Kane Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (22), Robby Fabbri (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:56Patrick Kane Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (22), Robby Fabbri (9)DET 1 – 0 CGY · DET 45% → 62% +17DET 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P115:59J.T. Compher Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (29), Alex DeBrincat (27)DET 2 – 0 CGY · DET 62% → 77% +15DET 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P25:12Dylan Larkin Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (13), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)DET 3 – 0 CGY · DET 80% → 91% +11DET 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P26:41David Perron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (15), Joe Veleno (13)DET 4 – 0 CGY · DET 91% → 97% +5DET 91% → 97%+5 pts
- P315:40Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (23)DET 5 – 0 CGY · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 58%
- Fair odds
- CGY -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −25 | +11 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.62 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +56 Elo | CGY 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 13th of 3112–12 | Road vs home | 11–1322nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.