Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Jared McCannAssists3
- Jared McCannPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:51Jordan Eberle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (20)2–5
- P214:40Jordan Eberle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (19), Justin Schultz (13)2–4
- P213:29Justin Schultz Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (8), Jordan Eberle (21)2–3
- P24:57Sam Lafferty Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Pius Suter (11), Teddy Blueger (18)2–2
- P20:21Jared McCann Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P113:22Vince Dunn Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (18), Andre Burakovsky (7)1–1
- P14:34J.T. Miller Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Tyler Myers (18), Brock Boeser (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:22Vince Dunn Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (18), Andre Burakovsky (7)VAN 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 36% → 52% +16SEA 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P20:21Jared McCann Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 52% → 69% +17SEA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P24:57Sam Lafferty Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Pius Suter (11), Teddy Blueger (18)VAN 2 – 2 SEA · VAN 30% → 48% +18VAN 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P213:29Justin Schultz Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (8), Jordan Eberle (21)VAN 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 52% → 72% +21SEA 52% → 72%+21 pts
- P214:40Jordan Eberle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (19), Justin Schultz (13)VAN 2 – 4 SEA · SEA 73% → 88% +15SEA 73% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 42%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- VAN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −23 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +55 Elo | VAN 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.5% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 7th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 10–1424th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.