Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals2
- Will BorgenAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:07Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (25), Lucas Raymond (30)4–3
- P37:25Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Will Borgen (18)3–3
- P215:58Daniel Sprong Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (11)3–2
- P210:51Jared McCann Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (7), Will Borgen (17)2–2
- P27:18Lucas Raymond Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (20), Jeff Petry (14)2–1
- P118:32Jared McCann Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (32), Andre Burakovsky (6)1–1
- P113:30Moritz Seider Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (14), Alex DeBrincat (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:18Lucas Raymond Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (20), Jeff Petry (14)DET 2 – 1 SEA · DET 47% → 66% +19DET 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P210:51Jared McCann Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (7), Will Borgen (17)DET 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 33% → 53% +20SEA 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P215:58Daniel Sprong Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (11)DET 3 – 2 SEA · DET 47% → 70% +22DET 47% → 70%+22 pts
- P37:25Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Will Borgen (18)DET 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 23% → 52% +29SEA 23% → 52%+29 pts
- OT1:07Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (25), Lucas Raymond (30)DET 4 – 3 SEA · DET 49% → 92% +43DET 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +6 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 13th of 3113–12 | Road vs home | 10–1324th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.