Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Zach PariseAssists1
- Artturi LehkonenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59), Mikko Rantanen (42)1–3
- P31:35Ryan Johansen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Parise (2)1–2
- P22:54Ryan Johansen Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Johnson (9), Devon Toews (22)1–1
- P110:46J.T. Miller Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (26), Quinn Hughes (57)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:46J.T. Miller Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (26), Quinn Hughes (57)VAN 1 – 0 COL · VAN 46% → 62% +16VAN 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P22:54Ryan Johansen Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Johnson (9), Devon Toews (22)VAN 1 – 1 COL · COL 35% → 54% +18COL 35% → 54%+18 pts
- P31:35Ryan Johansen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Parise (2)VAN 1 – 2 COL · COL 53% → 76% +24COL 53% → 76%+24 pts
- P319:32Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59), Mikko Rantanen (42)VAN 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → 100% +0COL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Fair odds
- COL -120
- VAN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +17 Elo | COL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.5% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 5th of 3118–13 | Road vs home | 19–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.