Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists2
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:20Aleksander Barkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P217:52Eetu Luostarinen Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (13), Evan Rodrigues (22)0–3
- P116:56Sam Reinhart Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (39), Aleksander Barkov (39)0–2
- P110:19Carter Verhaeghe Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (38), Matthew Tkachuk (38)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:19Carter Verhaeghe Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (38), Matthew Tkachuk (38)COL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 69% +15FLA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:56Sam Reinhart Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (39), Aleksander Barkov (39)COL 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 70% → 83% +13FLA 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P217:52Eetu Luostarinen Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (13), Evan Rodrigues (22)COL 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 90% → 97% +7FLA 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P39:20Aleksander Barkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 53%
- Fair odds
- FLA -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +24 Elo | FLA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 55.7%2nd of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 15th of 3112–13 | Road vs home | 14–1012th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.