Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Artturi LehkonenPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brandon HagelAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:34Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (3), Michael Eyssimont (8)3–6
- P319:28Anthony Cirelli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (32), Erik Cernak (7)3–5
- P38:13Nikita Kucherov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Steven Stamkos (27)3–4
- P34:00Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (57), Victor Hedman (44)3–3
- P33:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (57), Jonathan Drouin (21)3–2
- P215:03Bowen Byram Goal (8) Poke, assists: Ross Colton (18), Artturi Lehkonen (9)2–2
- P118:25Nikita Kucherov Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (31)1–2
- P117:18Brayden Point Goal (26) Deflected, assists: none1–1
- P115:08Bowen Byram Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (41), Nathan MacKinnon (56)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:18Brayden Point Goal (26) Deflected, assists: noneCOL 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 54% +17TB 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P215:03Bowen Byram Goal (8) Poke, assists: Ross Colton (18), Artturi Lehkonen (9)COL 2 – 2 TB · COL 26% → 47% +21COL 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P33:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (57), Jonathan Drouin (21)COL 3 – 2 TB · COL 47% → 74% +26COL 47% → 74%+26 pts
- P34:00Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (57), Victor Hedman (44)COL 3 – 3 TB · TB 26% → 53% +27TB 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P38:13Nikita Kucherov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Steven Stamkos (27)COL 3 – 4 TB · TB 52% → 81% +29TB 52% → 81%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +7 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%27th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3113–14 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.