Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Artturi LehkonenAssists2
- Artturi LehkonenPoints4
Capitals- Beck MalenstynGoals1
- Nic DowdAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:27Miles Wood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (9)6–3
- P319:01Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Mikko Rantanen (40)5–3
- P39:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (27), Anthony Mantha (10)4–3
- P217:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Nathan MacKinnon (54)4–2
- P28:50Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (17), Bowen Byram (8)3–2
- P110:00Connor McMichael Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (9)2–2
- P19:16Beck Malenstyn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (10), Nic Dowd (7)2–1
- P14:57Devon Toews Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (8), Andrew Cogliano (11)2–0
- P12:46Ross Colton Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (11), Artturi Lehkonen (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Ross Colton Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (11), Artturi Lehkonen (7)COL 1 – 0 WSH · COL 47% → 61% +15COL 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P110:00Connor McMichael Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (9)COL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 37% → 53% +16WSH 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P28:50Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (17), Bowen Byram (8)COL 3 – 2 WSH · COL 48% → 67% +20COL 48% → 67%+20 pts
- P217:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Nathan MacKinnon (54)COL 4 – 2 WSH · COL 70% → 87% +17COL 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P39:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (27), Anthony Mantha (10)COL 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 5% → 21% +16WSH 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Fair odds
- WSH -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +22 Elo | COL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 16th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 13–1317th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.