Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals3
- Pius SuterAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints4
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals3
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists3
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints6
Scoring summary
- P319:58Kirill Kaprizov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–10
- P318:53Jonas Brodin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (23)7–9
- P317:52Brock Boeser Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (56), Filip Hronek (38)7–8
- P38:26Nikita Zadorov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (47), Pius Suter (10)6–8
- P35:12Kirill Kaprizov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (24)5–8
- P34:48Marco Rossi Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jacob Lucchini (1), Vinni Lettieri (4)5–7
- P31:44Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Kirill Kaprizov (34)5–6
- P31:23Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33), Matt Boldy (23)5–5
- P30:29Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (32), Ryan Hartman (13)5–4
- P219:27Mats Zuccarello Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (33), Joel Eriksson Ek (22)5–3
- P214:30J.T. Miller Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (9)5–2
- P211:00Matt Boldy Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (21), Jon Merrill (4)4–2
- P29:24J.T. Miller Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (55), Brock Boeser (25)4–1
- P25:37Elias Pettersson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (8), Elias Lindholm (25)3–1
- P119:10Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Matt Boldy (22), Kirill Kaprizov (32)2–1
- P113:21J.T. Miller Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (5)2–0
- P12:51Ian Cole Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (17), Pius Suter (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:37Elias Pettersson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (8), Elias Lindholm (25)VAN 3 – 1 MIN · VAN 66% → 81% +15VAN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P30:29Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (32), Ryan Hartman (13)VAN 5 – 4 MIN · MIN 11% → 28% +17MIN 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P31:23Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33), Matt Boldy (23)VAN 5 – 5 MIN · MIN 27% → 52% +25MIN 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P31:44Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Kirill Kaprizov (34)VAN 5 – 6 MIN · MIN 52% → 76% +24MIN 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P34:48Marco Rossi Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jacob Lucchini (1), Vinni Lettieri (4)VAN 5 – 7 MIN · MIN 78% → 93% +15MIN 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +7 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +4 Elo | VAN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3118–12 | Road vs home | 13–1315th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.