Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals2
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Golden Knights- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists2
- Alex PietrangeloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (23) Backhand, assists: none5–3
- P39:40Mark Stone Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (20), Zach Whitecloud (4)4–3
- P37:29Matt Boldy Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (12), Brock Faber (29)4–2
- P36:28Marco Rossi Goal (14) Poke, assists: Matt Boldy (20), Brock Faber (28)3–2
- P117:45Michael Amadio Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (23), Brendan Brisson (2)2–2
- P112:09Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (19), Kirill Kaprizov (29)2–1
- P110:48Mats Zuccarello Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (28), Ryan Hartman (11)1–1
- P10:22Jonathan Marchessault Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (19), Alex Pietrangelo (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:09Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (19), Kirill Kaprizov (29)MIN 2 – 1 VGK · MIN 44% → 60% +16MIN 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P117:45Michael Amadio Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (23), Brendan Brisson (2)MIN 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 38% → 55% +17VGK 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P36:28Marco Rossi Goal (14) Poke, assists: Matt Boldy (20), Brock Faber (28)MIN 3 – 2 VGK · MIN 47% → 76% +29MIN 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P37:29Matt Boldy Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (12), Brock Faber (29)MIN 4 – 2 VGK · MIN 77% → 94% +17MIN 77% → 94%+17 pts
- P39:40Mark Stone Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (20), Zach Whitecloud (4)MIN 4 – 3 VGK · VGK 5% → 21% +16VGK 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +20 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.50 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +81 Elo | VGK 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 19–62nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.