Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Henri JokiharjuGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- Henri JokiharjuPoints2
Wild- Declan ChisholmGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:29Henri Jokiharju Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (22), Tage Thompson (16)3–2
- P319:23Dylan Cozens Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (10), Tage Thompson (15)2–2
- P311:21Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (17), Marco Rossi (16)1–2
- P34:02Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (31)1–1
- P30:39Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:39Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (8)BUF 1 – 0 MIN · BUF 47% → 72% +24BUF 47% → 72%+24 pts
- P34:02Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (31)BUF 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 26% → 53% +27MIN 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P311:21Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (17), Marco Rossi (16)BUF 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 52% → 84% +32MIN 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P319:23Dylan Cozens Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (10), Tage Thompson (15)BUF 2 – 2 MIN · BUF <1% → 49% +49BUF <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1:29Henri Jokiharju Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (22), Tage Thompson (16)BUF 3 – 2 MIN · BUF 49% → 93% +44BUF 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +7 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +38 Elo | MIN 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3111–13 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.