Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
SabresScoring summary
- P319:48Ryan Lomberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (18), Anton Lundell (15)4–0
- P318:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (26), Aleksander Barkov (41)3–0
- P217:16Anton Lundell Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (42), Gustav Forsling (17)2–0
- P19:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (40)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (40)FLA 1 – 0 BUF · FLA 44% → 60% +16FLA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P217:16Anton Lundell Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (42), Gustav Forsling (17)FLA 2 – 0 BUF · FLA 69% → 86% +17FLA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P318:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (26), Aleksander Barkov (41)FLA 3 – 0 BUF · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:48Ryan Lomberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (18), Anton Lundell (15)FLA 4 – 0 BUF · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 46%
- Fair odds
- BUF -131
- FLA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −33 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.83 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +26 Elo | FLA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 51.6%10th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 1st of 3117–9 | Road vs home | 11–1525th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.