Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:07John Ludvig Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (10), Lars Eller (8)5–2
- P35:35Anton Lundell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (6)5–1
- P215:24Bryan Rust Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Jake Guentzel (30), Chad Ruhwedel (2)4–1
- P213:02Anton Lundell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (41), Nick Cousins (4)4–0
- P28:27Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (40), Evan Rodrigues (24)3–0
- P25:02Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (10), Kevin Stenlund (4)2–0
- P24:28Matthew Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (23), Gustav Forsling (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:28Matthew Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (23), Gustav Forsling (16)FLA 1 – 0 PIT · FLA 47% → 65% +19FLA 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P25:02Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (10), Kevin Stenlund (4)FLA 2 – 0 PIT · FLA 65% → 81% +16FLA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P28:27Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (40), Evan Rodrigues (24)FLA 3 – 0 PIT · FLA 82% → 92% +10FLA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P213:02Anton Lundell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (41), Nick Cousins (4)FLA 4 – 0 PIT · FLA 94% → 98% +4FLA 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P215:24Bryan Rust Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Jake Guentzel (30), Chad Ruhwedel (2)FLA 4 – 1 PIT · PIT 1% → 5% +4PIT 1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +10 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.6% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 1st of 3116–9 | Road vs home | 12–1114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.