Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:50Adrian Kempe Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (28)2–1
- P313:49Adrian Kempe Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (18), Viktor Arvidsson (2)1–1
- P118:43Sidney Crosby Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (31), Bryan Rust (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:43Sidney Crosby Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (31), Bryan Rust (17)LA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 58% → 74% +16PIT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P313:49Adrian Kempe Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (18), Viktor Arvidsson (2)LA 1 – 1 PIT · LA 11% → 47% +36LA 11% → 47%+36 pts
- P316:50Adrian Kempe Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (28)LA 2 – 1 PIT · LA 48% → 94% +46LA 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Fair odds
- PIT -148
- LA +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +2 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +82 Elo | PIT 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 5th of 3115–11 | Road vs home | 12–1215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.