Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:10Bryan Rust Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (27)4–1
- P35:51Sidney Crosby Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (15), Marcus Pettersson (19)3–1
- P28:22Philipp Kurashev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Nick Foligno (11)2–1
- P112:40Reilly Smith Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (11)2–0
- P10:15Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (18), Rickard Rakell (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (18), Rickard Rakell (14)PIT 1 – 0 CHI · PIT 44% → 58% +15PIT 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P112:40Reilly Smith Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (11)PIT 2 – 0 CHI · PIT 61% → 75% +15PIT 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P28:22Philipp Kurashev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Nick Foligno (11)PIT 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 19% → 35% +16CHI 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P35:51Sidney Crosby Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (15), Marcus Pettersson (19)PIT 3 – 1 CHI · PIT 75% → 92% +17PIT 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P319:10Bryan Rust Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (27)PIT 4 – 1 CHI · PIT >99% → 100% +0PIT >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 45%
- Fair odds
- CHI -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −22 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +35 Elo | PIT 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 44.9%30th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 24th of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.