New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Penguins- Valtteri PuustinenGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:57Adam Pelech Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (42), Bo Horvat (27)5–4
- P313:02Drew O'Connor Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (26)4–4
- P312:06Valtteri Puustinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (28), Reilly Smith (13)4–3
- P310:42Mike Reilly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (21), Anders Lee (8)4–2
- P216:35Lars Eller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chad Ruhwedel (3), Ryan Graves (7)3–2
- P213:15Simon Holmstrom Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P26:37Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Sorokin (2)2–1
- P23:40Brock Nelson Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (5), Adam Pelech (7)1–1
- P112:48Marcus Pettersson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (16), Erik Karlsson (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:40Brock Nelson Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (5), Adam Pelech (7)NYI 1 – 1 PIT · NYI 28% → 45% +17NYI 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P26:37Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Sorokin (2)NYI 2 – 1 PIT · NYI 45% → 64% +19NYI 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P216:35Lars Eller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chad Ruhwedel (3), Ryan Graves (7)NYI 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 14% → 31% +17PIT 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P313:02Drew O'Connor Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (26)NYI 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 15% → 52% +37PIT 15% → 52%+37 pts
- OT0:57Adam Pelech Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (42), Bo Horvat (27)NYI 5 – 4 PIT · NYI 48% → 91% +43NYI 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +80 Elo | PIT 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.3% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 28th of 318–16 | Road vs home | 12–1319th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.