New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists3
- Noah DobsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:10Artemi Panarin Goal (32) , assists: none6–5
- P318:31Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (37), Alexis Lafrenière (19)5–5
- P315:52Chris Kreider Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (42), Vincent Trocheck (33)4–5
- P31:53Alexander Romanov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (51)3–5
- P218:24Vincent Trocheck Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (18), Ryan Lindgren (8)3–4
- P25:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (41), Adam Fox (36)2–4
- P21:03Anders Lee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (11), Mike Reilly (9)1–4
- P17:34Mathew Barzal Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brock Nelson (20), Noah Dobson (50)1–3
- P17:18Bo Horvat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (49), Adam Pelech (6)1–2
- P14:20Brock Nelson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (5), Cal Clutterbuck (11)1–1
- P11:28Erik Gustafsson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (4), Jonny Brodzinski (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:18Bo Horvat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (49), Adam Pelech (6)NYR 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 48% → 63% +15NYI 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P218:24Vincent Trocheck Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (18), Ryan Lindgren (8)NYR 3 – 4 NYI · NYR 12% → 28% +16NYR 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P31:53Alexander Romanov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (51)NYR 3 – 5 NYI · NYI 74% → 90% +17NYI 74% → 90%+17 pts
- P318:31Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (37), Alexis Lafrenière (19)NYR 5 – 5 NYI · NYR 1% → 50% +49NYR 1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT0:10Artemi Panarin Goal (32) , assists: noneNYR 6 – 5 NYI · NYR 51% → 90% +40NYR 51% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 59%
- Fair odds
- NYR -108
- NYI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +66 Elo | NYR 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 46.1%27th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.