Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals3
- Adam FoxAssists4
- Adam FoxPoints4
Scoring summary
- P311:27Cole Caufield Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (17), Kaiden Guhle (10)4–7
- P39:56Kaapo Kakko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (35), Will Cuylle (8)3–7
- P37:59Chris Kreider Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (34), Jimmy Vesey (6)3–6
- P36:53Cole Caufield Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (33), Nick Suzuki (33)3–5
- P34:23Vincent Trocheck Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (40), Braden Schneider (11)2–5
- P216:30Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (26)2–4
- P215:19Chris Kreider Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Adam Fox (34)1–4
- P214:43Mika Zibanejad Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (33), Artemi Panarin (38)1–3
- P212:27Will Cuylle Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (7), Adam Fox (32)1–2
- P211:09Chris Kreider Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33), Jacob Trouba (17)1–1
- P114:29Jake Evans Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Tanner Pearson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:29Jake Evans Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Tanner Pearson (6)MTL 1 – 0 NYR · MTL 44% → 60% +17MTL 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P211:09Chris Kreider Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33), Jacob Trouba (17)MTL 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 34% → 55% +21NYR 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P212:27Will Cuylle Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (7), Adam Fox (32)MTL 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 55% → 75% +20NYR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P214:43Mika Zibanejad Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (33), Artemi Panarin (38)MTL 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 75% → 89% +14NYR 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P215:19Chris Kreider Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Adam Fox (34)MTL 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 90% → 97% +7NYR 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 66%
- Fair odds
- NYR -134
- MTL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +15 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +114 Elo | NYR 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 51.3%13th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 17th of 3111–13 | Road vs home | 17–74th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.