Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:15Brandon Gignac Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9)0–5
- P37:26Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32), Cole Caufield (25)0–4
- P217:00Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (16), Alex Newhook (7)0–3
- P29:37Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (15), Jayden Struble (4)0–2
- P21:43Jake Evans Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tanner Pearson (5), Josh Anderson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:43Jake Evans Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tanner Pearson (5), Josh Anderson (7)ANA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 71% +17MTL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P29:37Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (15), Jayden Struble (4)ANA 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 73% → 87% +14MTL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P217:00Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (16), Alex Newhook (7)ANA 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 90% → 97% +7MTL 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P37:26Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32), Cole Caufield (25)ANA 0 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +1MTL >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P317:15Brandon Gignac Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9)ANA 0 – 5 MTL · MTL >99% → 100% +0MTL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Fair odds
- MTL -124
- ANA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −7 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +45 Elo | MTL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 10–1728th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.