Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Scott LaughtonGoals2
- Olle LycksellAssists2
- Scott LaughtonPoints3
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists3
- Sidney CrosbyPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:57Tyson Foerster Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (24), Scott Laughton (21)6–7
- P315:13Kris Letang Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: none5–7
- P310:10Cam York Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (3), Tyson Foerster (12)5–6
- P38:38Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (28), Marcus Pettersson (21)4–6
- P36:41Drew O'Connor Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (28), Valtteri Puustinen (9)4–5
- P217:36Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Cam York (13)4–4
- P216:33Travis Sanheim Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (23)3–4
- P213:38Emil Bemstrom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (14), Kris Letang (29)2–4
- P211:15Bryan Rust Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (35), Sidney Crosby (27)2–3
- P20:55Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (15), Sean Walker (16)2–2
- P117:15Bryan Rust Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (20), Sidney Crosby (26)1–2
- P19:38Sidney Crosby Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (18), Rickard Rakell (17)1–1
- P12:11Scott Laughton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (2), Travis Sanheim (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:38Sidney Crosby Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (18), Rickard Rakell (17)PHI 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 43% → 59% +16PIT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P20:55Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (15), Sean Walker (16)PHI 2 – 2 PIT · PHI 26% → 42% +16PHI 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P211:15Bryan Rust Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (35), Sidney Crosby (27)PHI 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 57% → 76% +19PIT 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P217:36Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Cam York (13)PHI 4 – 4 PIT · PHI 23% → 44% +21PHI 23% → 44%+21 pts
- P36:41Drew O'Connor Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (28), Valtteri Puustinen (9)PHI 4 – 5 PIT · PIT 55% → 81% +27PIT 55% → 81%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Fair odds
- PIT -148
- PHI +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | PHI: Cal Petersen: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +81 Elo | PIT 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.8% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 31 |
| 16th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 31 |
| 8th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 13–1418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.