New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:31Matt Rempe Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Barclay Goodrow (7), Braden Schneider (12)2–1
- P32:36Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (20), Travis Sanheim (26)1–1
- P211:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (35), K'Andre Miller (15)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (35), K'Andre Miller (15)NYR 1 – 0 PHI · NYR 47% → 68% +21NYR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P32:36Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (20), Travis Sanheim (26)NYR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 27% → 52% +25PHI 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P36:31Matt Rempe Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Barclay Goodrow (7), Braden Schneider (12)NYR 2 – 1 PHI · NYR 48% → 77% +28NYR 48% → 77%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Fair odds
- PHI -116
- NYR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +11 Elo | NYR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 54.6%4th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3117–12 | Road vs home | 13–1418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.